How to Avoid Jumping to Conclusions and Make Decisions Based on Reality 

We make hundreds of decisions throughout the day, most being automatic without much effort on our part. Information overload, cognitive biases, time constraints, social and emotional influences can lead to quick and sometimes irrational conclusions.

Our beliefs and worldviews act as filters that affect which information we pay attention to and how we interpret it. Lack of awareness can further make it challenging to recognize and control these automatic judgments. 

Critical thinking is unnatural. Following our feelings and emotions is more likely to motivate our behavior than well-reasoned arguments. We are as likely to be persuaded by irrelevant appeals as by relevant ones, and are more likely to produce slanted, selective, biased, one-sided, incomplete arguments than well-reasoned, fair-minded, reflective, accurate, complete arguments. We often prefer attacks on a person’s motives to attacks on a person’s reasons. We make assumptions that aren’t warranted, create straw man arguments out of fragments of opposing viewpoints, offer up false dilemmas, and draw conclusions hastily.
— Robert Carroll, Unnatural Acts

Ladder of inference is a powerful mental model that explains how we make these quick assessments or decisions.

Each step in the decision-making process is represented by a rung on the ladder. You start at the bottom, then climb each rung before making a decision and taking action. Going up and down the ladder usually happens unconsciously and very quickly in your brain, which leads to gaps in your thinking and reasoning process, makes you jump to conclusions and results in bad decisions. 

7 steps of the ladder of inference

There are 7 rungs on the Ladder of Inference. Here’s a breakdown of each step in the decision-making process, from observation to action:

Observation

At the bottom of the ladder, you start with raw data and facts. These are the things you can see, hear, or otherwise directly observe. At this stage, you’re just taking in the reality of what’s happening without making any interpretations yet.

Selected Data

Next, from the vast pool of data available, you unconsciously select certain data to focus on, often based on your personal beliefs, experiences, and biases. You zero in on certain details based on your own preferences or agenda and don’t consider all the available data when making a decision. 

Interpretations

After selecting data, you add meaning to the selected data. This involves interpreting the data based on your beliefs, assumptions, and past experiences. You start to form opinions and make sense of the information.

Assumptions

At this point, you start to make assumptions about the meaning of the data—often without considering whether they’re valid or not. These are often unstated but guide your thinking. They are influenced by your background, past experience and mental models.

Conclusions

Now you draw conclusions based on your assumptions about the meaning of the data. These conclusions can be explicit thoughts or decisions.

Beliefs 

Your conclusions then reinforce your existing beliefs, which can be deeply ingrained. This can lead to a vicious cycle where your beliefs influence how you make decisions, then those decisions solidify your beliefs further impacting how you think and act in future situations. 

Actions

Finally, you take action that seems right because it’s based on what you believe. In reality though, your actions are driven by your assumptions and not based on reality.

Better decision-making with ladder of inference

Judgments are the automatic pigeon-holing of a person or situation simply because some characteristic is familiar to the observer (so whatever that characteristic meant before it must mean again now). Familiarity is comfortable, but such judgments drop the curtain, effectively preventing the observer from seeing the rest of the play. 
— Gavin de Becker, The Gift of Fear

Our actions in any given situation are determined by how we perceive the situation. We can all come to very different understandings, depending on what aspects of the situation we choose to focus on and how we interpret what is going on.

By consciously employing Ladder of Inference as a tool in decision-making, you can become more aware of the thought processes that underlie your choices. You can use it to evaluate whether your choices are based on reality or assumptions. 

This awareness will allow you to make more informed, objective, and rational decisions, reducing the potential for bias and flawed reasoning. Employed right, ladder of inference:

1. Helps individuals and teams improve communication by making implicit thought processes and assumptions explicit, reducing misunderstandings.
2. Aids in resolving conflicts by allowing everyone to understand how they and others arrive at their conclusions and judgments.
3. Enhances decision-making by encouraging a more thoughtful and reasoned approach, reducing the influence of biases. This can lead to more effective problem-solving and better outcomes.
4. Encourages people to consider alternative viewpoints and perspectives. This can lead to more open-mindedness and a willingness to explore different options and solutions.
5. Leaders can use it to understand their team’s thought processes, fostering better leadership and collaboration.

It starts with the understanding that:

• Your ideas, thoughts and judgments are not facts.  
• There are often gaps in the data you select.
• Your beliefs may not be based on real data.
• Your decisions are influenced by personal biases and mental models.
• You don’t always act rationally.

Using Ladder of Inference for your own decisions

Contrary to what we’re led to believe, thinking better isn’t about being a genius. It is about the processes we use to uncover reality and the choices we make once we do.
— Shane Parrish, The Great Mental Models

When you’re faced with a decision, especially a complex or important one, deliberately slow down the process. Recognize that you and others are continually climbing this ladder, often without conscious thought. 

Now, follow these steps:

Step 1: Identify where you are on the ladder

Identify which rung of the ladder you’re currently on.

Step 2: Work your way down the ladder

Now that you know which rung you’re on, you can work your way back down the ladder to engage in more deliberate decision-making. 

Here are questions to ask at each stage of the ladder—start with the rung from step 1 and move down on the ladder. 

Observation

• What specific data or facts have I observed in this situation?
• Have I gathered all the relevant information, or am I missing anything?
• Is my perception accurate, or am I making assumptions about what I see?

Selected Data

• What factors or details am I choosing to focus on, and why?
• What details I might be overlooking or ignoring?
• How might my personal experiences or biases be influencing my data selection?

Interpretations

• What meaning or interpretation am I assigning to the observed data?
• What alternative interpretations should I consider?
• How does my interpretation align with the actual data, and am I making logical connections?

Assumptions

• What assumptions am I making about the meaning of the data?
• Are my assumptions based on valid reasoning, or am I making leaps without evidence?
• How might my personal beliefs or mental models be shaping my assumptions?

Conclusions

• What conclusions or decisions am I drawing based on my assumptions?
• Are these conclusions logically derived from the data and assumptions?
• Have I considered potential consequences of these conclusions?

Beliefs

• How do my conclusions align with my existing beliefs and values?
• Am I aware of any confirmation bias, where I might be seeking information that supports my beliefs while rejecting contradictory evidence?
• Are there any deeply held beliefs that might be influencing my thinking?

Actions

• What action am I inclined to take based on my conclusions and beliefs?
• What’s the potential impact of this action on others and the broader context?
• What alternative actions might be more appropriate or effective?

Step 3: Work your way up the ladder again

After you’ve worked your way down the ladder, you’re probably much more aware of your reasoning process and any assumptions you may have made. Now, try climbing the ladder, this time more consciously and deliberately. 

By following this 3-step process, you can cultivate a more disciplined and mindful approach to decision-making. This helps ensure that your decisions are based on a solid foundation of data, thoughtful analysis, and an awareness of potential biases, ultimately leading to better, more informed choices.

To further improve your decision making skills, ask these questions:

• Am I periodically reflecting on the entire process to ensure that my decision-making is sound?
• Have I sought input and feedback from others to challenge my assumptions and conclusions?
• How can I continually refine my decision-making process to reduce bias and improve accuracy?

Using Ladder of Inference to help others in decision-making

Questioning helps people gain perspective and understand the perspectives of others. As they see issues and problems from different points of view, they gain an appreciation for their complexity—and also expand the range of possible solutions.
— Michael J. Marquardt, Leading with Questions

To help others make better decisions using the Ladder of Inference, you can ask them a series of thoughtful questions that encourage reflection, critical thinking, and a deeper examination of their thought process. These questions are designed to guide them through each stage of the ladder and promote a more well-informed decision-making process. 

Here are the questions to ask others at different rungs of the ladder:

Observation 

• What specific data or facts have you observed or gathered in this situation?
• Are there any details or information you might have missed or overlooked?

Selected Data

• Have you considered all available data, or are you focusing on a specific subset of information?
• How do your personal biases or preferences influence the data you’ve chosen to focus on?

Interpretations

• What meaning are you assigning to the observed data? How are you interpreting it?
• Are there alternative interpretations or explanations for this information?

Assumptions

• What assumptions are you making about the meaning of the data?
• Have you critically examined these assumptions, and are they well-founded?
• Are there other possible assumptions that should be considered?

Conclusions

• What conclusions are you drawing based on your assumptions and interpretations?
• Are these conclusions logical and consistent with the data and information available?
• Have you thought about the potential consequences and implications of your conclusions?

Beliefs

• How do your existing beliefs and mental models influence your conclusions?
• Are your beliefs still relevant and accurate in light of the data and conclusions?
• Are you open to adjusting your beliefs if the evidence suggests a different perspective?

Actions

• How are your conclusions driving your actions or decision-making?
• Do you believe your actions are based on well-reasoned conclusions?
• Have you considered the potential consequences of the actions you plan to take?

Example putting Ladder of Inference to practice

Scenario:  You are a manager leading a team of multiple developers. 

Observation

You are looking at the performance data of all your developers. 

Selected Data

Jim has missed several deadlines.

Reality check: Jim has missed several deadlines. Several of the projects he worked on didn’t have clear requirements, project timelines were very aggressive and many ad hoc requests were made at the last minute by his product managers. 

Interpretations

Jim doesn’t have the skills to handle the tasks properly. 

Reality check: Jim can’t be blamed for missing these deadlines. 

Assumptions

If Jim hasn’t been able to deliver on time, he must not be a good software engineer. 

Reality check: It’s your responsibility to ensure that your team gets requirement clarity and are given reasonable timelines to deliver.  

Conclusions

I’ll need to fire Jim if he keeps missing deadlines.

Reality check: You need to be more involved in the product planning phase. 

Beliefs

Only talented engineers can do well in technology. Jim isn’t cut out for software engineering.

Reality check: Good engineers aren’t born, they are made. 

Actions

Monitor him closely to the point of micromanaging his tasks to ensure he completes his work on time.

Reality check: Improve the planning process to ensure your team is productive and performant.

Instead of assuming and jumping to conclusions, pause and ask if it’s really true or you’re making things up. Consciously engaging with your own thoughts this way can enable you to make more informed, objective, and rational decisions, reducing the potential for bias and flawed reasoning.

Summary

1. We make very few decisions consciously because our brain is trained to run on autopilot and makes most of the decisions for us.
2. While these automatic judgments and conclusions may serve us well in certain situations, leaving our brain to decide can also be utterly damaging. Biased decisions and strong opinions are more likely to play out unless we pay attention.
3. Ladder of inference is a mental model that can lead to quick and automatic judgments with biased opinions. 
4. Employed right, ladder of inference can also be a powerful model to catch our flawed reasoning and make more rational decisions. 
5. When making important decisions, identify which rung of the ladder you’re on and ask questions to challenge your thinking as you move up and down. 

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